Climate models have indicated with high confidence that climate change will lead to an increase in extreme rainfall events. For India, the average monsoon rainfall is expected to increase initially and then reduce after a few decades. The main reason for understanding extreme events is to help policymakers, emergency responders and local communities to plan and prepare for them. Cities could be laid out to reduce flooding by following natural contours, drainage and tank systems. Emergency responders should be well prepared to transport and care for people who may become stranded during disasters. Insurance companies might also be concerned about underwriting places that are at perpetual risk in the future. Once an extreme event such as a heat wave or heavy rain occurs, people want to know to what extent a single event has been caused by climate change, that is, by greenhouse gases released through human activities. Research that tries to understand this relationship between anthropogenic climate change and extreme events in particular locations is called “attribution”. Development needs to be climate-smart, but also avoid social and institutional challenges such as moral hazard.

(The Hindu)